Every holiday season, most small businesses plan from memory. It was busy, it was hard to keep up, we should start earlier next year. By October the details have faded, and the same surprises arrive on the same dates: the week the phone did not stop, the day stock ran out, the stretch that turned out quieter than anyone expected.
The details have not actually gone. They are sitting in your booking system, your till, your phone records, your inbox and your accounts. Pulling them together takes an afternoon, and it turns this year's plan from a guess into something based on what really happened.
What to pull, and from where
Look at mid-October to mid-January last year, week by week. Gather whatever you have of the following:
- Inquiries per week, from calls, forms, messages and walk-ins, and where each one came from if you recorded it.
- Jobs booked or sales made per week, and the value of each week.
- Which services or products sold most, and which customers asked for that you could not provide.
- Missed calls and unanswered messages, especially on the busiest days.
- What you spent on marketing each week, and on what.
You will not have all of it, and that is fine. Even two or three of these in a simple spreadsheet will show a pattern. If you could not tell where inquiries came from, fixing that before this season is worth doing first; log where every lead came from in your CRM explains the one field that makes it possible.
Find the peak, then work backwards
Mark the busiest week and the quietest week. For many businesses the peak is not where they assume. A home service business might find its busiest stretch was the first cold snap in November rather than December, while a shop's might have been the weekend before Christmas rather than Black Friday. Thanksgiving falls on November 26 this year, a day earlier than last year, so line the weeks up by the holiday rather than by date.
Once you know when demand arrived, the rest of the plan follows from it. Promotion needs to start a week or two before the peak, not on it. Extra staff, stock and booking slots need to be in place before the busiest week, not arranged during it.
Last year's busiest week is the best forecast you have for this one. Most businesses never look at it.
Look hard at what you lost
The most useful numbers are often the ones that show where business got away. Missed calls on peak days, messages answered a day late, jobs turned down because the schedule was full, products that sold out. Each one is a customer who went to a competitor, and each has a fix you can put in place now: more cover on the phones, an automatic text reply to missed calls, earlier booking deadlines, deeper stock of the items that ran out.
Do the same with spending. If you ran promotions last year, compare what each one cost with the inquiries and sales that came in while it ran. Keep what worked, drop what did not, and move the timing to match the peak you just found.
Write this year's plan on one page
Turn what you found into a single page with dates on it: when promotion starts, when extra help starts, when booking and order deadlines fall, when you are closed, and what you will measure each week. Then record this year's numbers in the same format as you go, so next October the comparison takes minutes instead of an afternoon. The same review also feeds straight into writing next year's marketing plan in October.
If pulling these numbers together is the part that never gets done, a Vizible marketing expert works through them with you and does the work that follows. You can also see what a season plan would look like for your business in a free growth proposal.
Frequently asked questions
- What numbers should I look at from last holiday season?
- Weekly inquiries, bookings or sales, the value of each week, what customers asked for, missed calls and messages, and what you spent on promotion. Even two or three of these will show a useful pattern.
- What if I don't have good records from last year?
- Use what you have, such as booking history, sales reports, phone logs and bank deposits, and start recording this season week by week in a simple spreadsheet so next year's review is easier.
- How do I compare seasons when the holiday dates move?
- Line the weeks up by the holiday rather than the calendar date. Thanksgiving is on November 26 this year, so compare the weeks before and after it with the same weeks around last year's Thanksgiving.
- When should holiday promotion start?
- A week or two before your own busiest week, which last year's numbers will show you. Starting on the peak itself means the promotion arrives after many customers have already decided.